电力需求与定价(12)

period, then the optimal marginal capacity costs may be allocated

among the different ratinpge riods in proportion to the

corresponding marginal outage costs. It has been suggested

that capacity costs should be allocated to different rating periods

in inverse proportion to LOLP, but this would be only

an approximation because aggregate reliability indices such as

LOLP are poor proxies for prorating outage costs.

D. Shadow Pricing

In the idealized world of perfect competition the interaction

of many small profit maximizing producers and welfare maximizing

consumers gives rise to market prices that reflect the

true economic costs, and scarce resources are efficiently allocated

[ 231. However, conditions are likely to be far from

ideal in the real world. Distortions due to monopoly practices,

external economies, and diseconomies (which are not internalized

in the private market), interventions in the market process

through taxes, import duties and subsidies, etc., all result in

market (or fiancial) prices for goods and services, which may

diverge substantially from their shadow prices or true economic

opportunity costs. For example, in a country where

subsidized diesel fuel is available for electricity generation, the

appropriate shadow price would be the import price rather

than the artificially low market price. Moreover, if there are

large numbers of poor consumers, pricing based only on strict

efficiency criteria may be socially and politically unacceptable.

Such considerations necessitate the use of appropriate shadow

prices (instead of market prices) of inputs to the electricity

sector, to determine the optimali nvestment program as well as

LRMC [30], (311.

111. CALCULATINGS TRICTL RMC

Strict LRMC may be defined practically as the incremental

cost of optimum adjustments in the system expansion plan

and system operations attributable to a small increment of

demand which is sustained into the future. The term longrun

incremental cost may also be used interchangeably with

LRMC, because the changes refer to small but finite variations.

LRMC must be structured within a disaggregated framework,

based chiefly on technical grounds. This structuring may include:

differentiation of marginal costs by time of day, voltage

level, geographic area, season of the year, and so on. The degree

of structuring and sophistication of the LRMC calculation

depends on data constraints and the usefulness of the results,

given the practical problems of computing and applying a complex

tariff; e.g., in theory, the LRMC of each individual consumer

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