CHAPTER 6 INTERNATIONAL PARITY RELATIONSHIPS SUGGESTED ANSWERS AND SOLUTIONS TO END-OF-CHAPTER
QUESTIONS AND PROBLEMS
QUESTIONS
1. Give a full definition of arbitrage.
Answer: Arbitrage can be defined as the act of simultaneously buying and selling the same or equivalent assets or commodities for the purpose of making certain, guaranteed profits.
2. Discuss the implications of the interest rate parity for the exchange rate determination.
Answer: Assuming that the forward exchange rate is roughly an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate, IRP can be written as:
S = [(1 + I￡)/(1 + I$)]E[St+1?It].
The exchange rate is thus determined by the relative interest rates, and the expected future spot rate, conditional on all the available information, It, as of the present time. One thus can say that expectation is self-fulfilling. Since the information set will be continuously updated as news hit the market, the exchange rate will exhibit a highly dynamic, random behavior.
3. Explain the conditions under which the forward exchange rate will be an unbiased predictor of the future spot exchange rate.
Answer: The forward exchange rate will be an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate if (I) the risk premium is insignificant and (ii) foreign exchange markets are informationally efficient.
4. Explain the purchasing power parity, both the absolute and relative versions. What causes the deviations from the purchasing power parity?
IM-1
Answer: The absolute version of purchasing power parity (PPP): S = P$/P￡. The relative version is: e = ?$ - ?￡.
PPP can be violated if there are barriers to international trade or if people in different countries have different consumption taste. PPP is the law of one price applied to a standard consumption basket.
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8. Explain the random walk model for exchange rate forecasting. Can it be consistent with the technical analysis?
Answer: The random walk model predicts that the current exchange rate will be the best predictor of the future exchange rate. An implication of the model is that past history of the exchange rate is of no value in predicting future exchange rate. The model thus is inconsistent with the technical analysis which tries to utilize past history in predicting the future exchange rate.
*9. Derive and explain the monetary approach to exchange rate determination.
Answer: The monetary approach is associated with the Chicago School of Economics. It is based on two tenets: purchasing power parity and the quantity theory of money. Combing these two theories allows for stating, say, the $/￡ spot exchange rate as:
S($/￡) = (M$/M￡)(V$/V￡)(y￡/y$),
where M denotes the money supply, V the velocity of money, and y the national aggregate output. The theory holds that what matters in exchange rate determination are: 1. The relative money supply,
2. The relative velocities of monies, and 3. The relative national outputs.
10. CFA question: 1997, Level 3.
A. Explain the following three concepts of purchasing power parity (PPP): a. The law of one price. b. Absolute PPP. c. Relative PPP.
B. Evaluate the usefulness of relative PPP in predicting movements in foreign exchange rates on:
a. Short-term basis (for example, three months) b. Long-term basis (for example, six years)
Answer:
A. a. The law of one price (LOP) refers to the international arbitrage condition for the standard
consumption basket. LOP requires that the consumption basket should be selling for the same price in a given currency across countries.
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A. b. Absolute PPP holds that the price level in a country is equal to the price level in another country times the exchange rate between the two countries.
A. c. Relative PPP holds that the rate of exchange rate change between a pair of countries is about
equal
to the difference in inflation rates of the two countries.
B. a. PPP is not useful for predicting exchange rates on the short-term basis mainly because international commodity arbitrage is a time-consuming process. B. b. PPP is useful for predicting exchange rates on the long-term basis.
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PROBLEMS
1. Suppose that the treasurer of IBM has an extra cash reserve of $100,000,000 to invest for six months. The six-month interest rate is 8 percent per annum in the United States and 6 percent per annum in Germany. Currently, the spot exchange rate is
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