中国巨额外汇储备的风险和管理对策

我国巨额外汇储备的风险和管理对策

摘要

在开放经济条件下,外汇储备是一国所持有国际储备资产的重要组成部分,是由货币当局持有且流动性较高的外币资产。外汇储备用于调节国际收支、保障汇率稳定、对外债务结算，是反映一个国家的经济实力的重要指标。一定水平的外汇储备不仅是保护中国对外经济贸易的顺利发展的重要手段，对有效的抵御金融风险的外部冲击，汇率稳定和提高中国的国际声誉也起着相当重要的作用。2014年3月末,我国外汇储备达到3.95万亿美元的新高。外汇储备的大量积累反映了我国支付能力的增强，国际经济实力的增长，然而，高额的外汇储备带来了许多负面影响。在外汇储备超常增长的影响下我国经济面临着流动性过剩，通胀压力加大的风险。为了保持了汇率和货币政策目标的稳定性，频繁的公开市场操作会增加流动性，并且要支付高昂的费用。另一方面，欧美经济复苏乏力，美国实行量化宽松政策，美元持续贬值，使得已经持有大量美元外汇资产的我国面临着外汇资产萎缩的危险，对于中国外汇储备资产和价值的维护及安全有着严重影响。外汇储备这把双刃剑使我国政府面临着两大挑战。挑战之一是如何分散外汇储备投资，包括对美元资产的控股公司，尤其是美国国债，持有其他货币资产，股权，甚至黄金和其他资源。更重要的挑战是如何通过资产重组抑制外汇储备超常增长。面对这些困难，中国外汇储备的调整成为了近年来经济学家关于外汇储备研究的一个热点。正是在这种背景下，笔者利用学习外汇储备的相关理论文章，严格遵守理论研究的学术标准，在大量阅读国内外相关文献的基础上，认真吸取前人研究成果，从我国外汇储备的发展历程、现状、存在的问题及影响、造成我国外汇储备困境的原因等方面对我国外汇储备展开研究，并提出了应对和解决我国外汇储备超常增长的对策。

关键词：外汇储备，美元资产缩水，保值增值，管理对策

Research on Risk and Management Countermeasure of China’s huge

Foreign Exchange Reserve

Abstract

Under the condition of open economy, foreign exchange reserve is an important part of a country's holdings of international reserve assets,is also the foreign currency assets held by the mone-Tary authorities and high mobility.Adjusting the balance of international payments,security settlement exchange rate stability and external debt in foreign exchange reserves is an important index which reflects the strength of a country's economy. A certain level of foreign exchange reserves is not only an important means to protect the smooth development of foreign trade and economic cooperation of the China,effectively resist financial risks to external shocks, but also plays an important role in a stable exchange rate and improve the Chinese international reputation.At the end of March 2014, China's foreign exchange reserves to 395 millions dollars highs level.Foreign exchange reserve accumulation enhanced China's capacity to paymaent .However, high foreign exchange reserves has brought many negative effects .The supernormal growth of foreign exchange reserves in China make economy facing excess liquidity and increase the risk of inflation. In order to maintain the stability of exchange rate and monetary policy objectives, frequent open market operations will increase liquidity, and to pay the high cost. On the other hand, the economic recovery of Europe is still weak,USA’s quantitative easing making China's large holdings of dollar assets of foreign exchange assets facing danger of shrinking foreign exchange, it also has a serious impact on maintenance and safety of assets and the value of Chinese reserves.Foreign exchange reserve has become a double-edged sword so that our government faces two major challenges. One of the challenges is how to disperse the investment of its foreign-exchange reserves in

dollar

assets,including the

holding

company,especially America Treasuries, holding

other monetary assets equity, even gold and other resources. More important challenge is how to inhibit the supernormal growth of foreign exchange reserves through the reorganizatiaon of assets. In the face of these difficulties,Chinese reserve adjustment has become a hot area in recent years.Under this background, the author’s research used the theory of the learning in foreign exchange reserves, strictly abide by the academic standards of the theoretical research, based on reading a lot of related literature in our country and abroad, absorb the results of previous studies from the development process, research the China's

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foreign exchange reserve status, problems and influence, also puts forward some corresponding countermeasures in solving the extraordinary growth of China's foreign exchange reserves.

Key words:foreign exchange reserve, assets shrink, preserve and increase value, management

countermeasure

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目录

一 绪论 ........................................................................... 1 （一） 研究背景 ....................................................................................................................................... 1 （二）巨额外汇储备是一把双刃剑 .......................................................................................................... 1 1巨额外汇储备的优势........................................................................................................................... 1 2巨额外汇储备的负面影响 ................................................................................................................... 1 （三）研究目的和意义.............................................................................................................................. 2 二 我国外汇储备现状 ................................................................................................................................... 3 （一）我国外汇储备的数量规模 .............................................................................................................. 3 1我国外汇储备总量巨大 ....................................................................................................................... 3 2巨额外汇储备规模的形成 ................................................................................................................... 4 （二）我国外汇储备的结构现状 .............................................................................................................. 4 1我国外汇储备资产结构 ....................................................................................................................... 4 2我国外汇储备币种构成 ....................................................................................................................... 4 三 巨额外汇储备的风险及存在问题 ........................................................................................................... 7 （一）巨额外汇储备的风险 ...................................................................................................................... 7 1加剧通货膨胀的风险........................................................................................................................... 7 2利率风险 .............................................................................................................................................. 7 3汇率风险 .............................................................................................................................................. 8 4流动性风险 .......................................................................................................................................... 9 5操作和技术风险................................................................................................................................... 9 6机会成本风险 .................................................................................................................................... 10 （二）巨额外汇储备存在的问题 ............................................................................................................ 10 1我国外汇储备总量过大......................................................................................................................10 2巨额外汇储备资产和币种结构不合理..............................................................................................10 3巨额外汇储备资产管理体系有待完善..............................................................................................11 四 巨额外汇储备的管理 ................................................................................................................... ..........12 （一）加大调整外汇储备资产结构 ................................................................................................... .....12 （二）逐步调整外汇储备币种结构 ........................................................................................................ 12

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1逐步降低美元在我国外汇储备中的比重 ......................................................................................... 13 2适度提高欧元在我国外汇储备中的比重 ......................................................................................... 13 3基本保持日元储备水平 ..................................................................................................................... 13 （三）对外汇储备进行积极管理 ............................................................................................................ 14 1新加坡外汇积极管理的经验 ............................................................................................................. 14 2继续推进外汇储备积极管理 ............................................................................................................. 14 （四）建立完善的外汇储备风险管理体系 ............................................................................................ 15 （五）扩展外汇储备形式，增加战略资源储备 .................................................................................... 15 （六）完善外汇储备管理相关法律法规 ................................................................................................ 16 （七）引入外部经理人............................................................................................................................ 16 五 结论 ......................................................................................................................................................... 17 致谢 ............................................................................................................................... 错误！未定义书签。 参考文献 ....................................................................................................................................................... 18

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