考研英语经典阅读材料19篇

In praise of pessimists

我们现在需要悲观主义者

Sometimes it helps if investors are gloomy 有时投资者的悲观情绪会大有益处

BARELY a week goes by without a report on the level of confidence among consumers, businesspeople and investors. Optimism is what’s wanted—Keynes talked of the “animal spirits” that influence economic activity. Pessimists are routinely denounced as Jeremiahs. Those who try to bet on falling prices find their activities are restricted.

几乎每周都会有信心指数公布出来，不是消费者信心指数，就是企业家或投资者的信心指数。乐观主义是人们喜闻乐见的，凯恩斯就谈到过“动物精神”对经济活动的促进作用。而悲观主义者常常被指责为“耶利米”。[注]那些趁价格下降靠卖空来赚钱的人，会遇到各种规则上的限制。

A cheery disposition may be necessary for societies to function. Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and Nobel economics laureate, has a chapter in his book “Thinking Fast and Slow” which describes overconfidence as “the engine of capitalism”. No entrepreneur can be sure that his planned investment will succeed but if no one took a risk, new products and jobs would never be created. A certain blindness to the odds may be necessary. According to Mr Kahneman, the chances of an American small business surviving for five years are just 35%. But ask individual entrepreneurs about their prospects and 81% think they have a better than seven-in-ten chance of success.

乐观的性格对社会的正常运作可能是必不可少的。心理学家和诺贝尔奖获得者丹尼尔?卡纳曼在他的书《Thinking Fast and Slow》中有一章专门讲到，过度自信是“资本主义的引擎”。企业家不可能事先知道他的投资能否成功，但如果没有人愿意承担风险，新的产品和就业机会永远也不会被创造出来。 因此，某种程度的盲目乐观可能是必要的。据卡纳曼先生的资料，美国小企业的五年存活率只有35%。但是，如果你问小企业家们自己，81%的人会认为他们的成功机率在七成以上。

This self-confidence may be innate, just as most people think they are better-than-average drivers. And it would seem logical that the most optimistic people gravitate towards entrepreneurship. That is good for consumers, who can select from a wider variety of products. Even the failed businesses serve a purpose. Daniel Gross, a journalist, wrote a book claiming that bubbles were good for economies since they leave behind infrastructure (canals, railways, fibre-optic cable) that can last for generations.

这种自信可能是天生的，正像大多数人认为自己的驾车技术在常人之上一样。所以不奇怪的是，最具乐观精神的人往往倾向于作企业家。这对消费者是有好处的，因为他们可以有众多的产品可以选择。即便失败的生意也不是一无用处，记者丹尼尔?克劳斯在他写的书中说，泡沫对经济是有好处的，因为泡沫留下的基础设施（运河、铁路、光纤电缆等）对几代人都

有用。

But it is hard to make such a case for all bubbles. Anyone who has driven past a row of empty houses in the Irish countryside will realise that optimism can lead to wasteful investment. And Mr Kahneman cites studies that show how overoptimistic chief executives (as measured by the amount of stock they own) were more likely to gear up their balance-sheets and pay too much for acquisitions.

不过，不能说所有的泡沫都是有好处的。任何一个见过爱尔兰农村那些成排的空房子的人，都会认识到乐观主义也会带来投资浪费。卡纳曼先生曾引用过一些研究报告，显示那些过于乐观的CEO们更有可能扩大企业规模并以过高价格并购企业。

The problem with overoptimism was illustrated by the investment-bank collapses of 2008. The men who reached the top of such risk-taking organisations had, by definition, been successful in their previous bets. They believed this was due to skill, not luck, making them too sanguine about their ability to ride out the crisis.

过度乐观的问题从2008年那些投资银行的崩溃中也可以看出来。爬到那些冒险的企业顶端的人，当然都是在此前的冒险中成功的人。他们相信自己的成功是由于能力而不是幸运。，从而过于乐观地认为自己也有能力克服危机。

A further problem with optimism is thus that it is pro-cyclical. The greatest moment of success for optimists will occur at the peak of a boom, when they will feel their instincts have been justified. Previous house-price rises will make buyers more optimistic about borrowing more money; and banks will be more optimistic about the prospect of being repaid.

乐观主义的另一个问题是，它给经济周期推波助澜。繁荣期的顶峰正是乐观主义者成功的欢乐时刻，在这个时刻，他感到他在低谷时的冒险冲动得到回报了。所以，在房价上升之后，购房者对于借钱买房更为乐观，而银行则对贷款可以回收更为乐观。

Financial assets are highly unusual in that rising prices tend to elicit higher demand. Analysts extrapolate recent rapid profits growth into the future, even though profits cannot rise faster than GDP indefinitely. If markets were truly efficient, price-earnings ratios should be lower than average at the top of the cycle, since investors should anticipate a reversion to the mean. Instead, high p/e ratios and rapid profits growth tend to go together.

金融资产在繁荣期异乎寻常地增长，因为价格越上升越刺激新的需求。市场分析家们把近期的利润快速增长作为推算今后趋势的基础，即便利润不可能永远比GDP增长更快。假如市场真的是有效率的，股票的价利比在周期高峰点应当下降，因为这时投资者应当预期价格会逐渐回归平均水平。但实际上，高价利比和利润的高增长往往同步。

It used to be the role of central bankers to take away the punchbowl when the party was in full swing. Under Alan Greenspan, however, the Federal Reserve ended up spiking the punch with more rum by cutting rates whenever markets wobbled. The hope is that in future central banks will

keep an eye on asset bubbles under the guise of “macroprudential” policy. This might involve the use of broader measures than just interest rates. For example, the Fed could pop housing bubbles by imposing a maximum loan-to-value ratio for mortgages.

通常，当投资者的派对情绪过于高涨时，中央银行会扮演泼冷水的角色。但是，在阿兰?格林斯潘时期，每当市场波动时，美联储反而火上浇油，继续降低利率。人们希望未来中央银行能够实行“审慎的宏观政策”，对资产泡沫进行适当监控。这可能需要一整套措施，不仅仅是利率工具。例如，美联储可以通过对房屋贷款设定贷款额与房价比例最高限的办法，来阻止房产泡沫膨胀。

But what if the bubble this time is in government bonds, not equities? The last time long-term Treasury bonds yielded 2.1% was in 1949. Investors who took the plunge into Treasuries then earned an annual negative real return of 1.6% over the following 30 years.

但是，如果这次的泡沫不是在股票上，而是在政府债券上呢？政府长期债券利率此前最后一次降到2.1%是在1949年，那个时候买进长期债券的投资者在其后三十年中的真实年收益率是-1.6%。

On this occasion, however, the central bank is one of the main purchasers of Treasury bonds in an effort to keep yields low. Such low yields could be attributed to optimism that American politicians will agree on a long-term plan to sort out the government’s finances. But it seems likely that the main driver is pessimism about the outlook for other asset classes.

不过，在目前的情况下，政府长期债券的主要买主是中央银行，他们购买的目的是保持债券的低利率。这样低的利率本来应当是人们对政治家们将制定长期计划以解决财政赤字问题的乐观预期的结果，但实际上，人们对除债券外其它资产前景的悲观预期倒像是主要的原因。

In this case the gloom seems entirely beneficial. Low rates stimulate the economy and are good news for the American government, which can finance its deficit cheaply and without facing the dilemmas that beset the Italian and Spanish governments, which must impose austerity at a time of economic slowdown. But the pessimists can’t expect to be thanked.

在这个问题上，悲观情绪看来是很有好处的。低利率可以刺激经济，同时，美国政府可以用低成本实行赤字财政而不必像意大利和西班牙政府那样面临两难的处境：在经济低迷的情况下却必须紧缩开支。不过，悲观主义者别指望会得到感恩。

[注] 耶利米是《圣经》中犹大国灭国前最黑暗时期的一位先知，《旧约》中《耶利米书》和《耶利米哀歌》的作者。他被称作“流泪的先知”，因为他明知犹大国远离上帝后，所注定的悲哀命运，但不能改变他们顽梗的心。

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