风险管理软件Crystal - Ball使用指导（中英文）(5)

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Fitting a Distribution

拟合分布

Crystal Ball can be used to ―fit‖ a distribution to data. 可以用水晶球软件对数据进行拟合

The following data has been collected for the previous 100 phone calls to a mail-order house:

下面的数据来自邮购商行的前100个电话。 A1234567891011121314151617181999100101102103104BCDEFGHIPhone DataCustomer #1234567891011121314159596979899100Arrival(minutes)8.2212.2512.2716.2618.0618.8723.4623.5328.7330.5632.3636.9043.3043.8845.17194.02195.48195.87196.84197.81200.43InterarrivalTime8.224.030.023.981.810.814.580.085.201.831.804.546.400.571.290.281.460.380.980.972.61Length of Call(minutes)3.774.534.043.705.384.364.415.144.764.685.065.754.063.253.574.263.374.455.065.204.25AveragesInterarrivalTime2.004Length of Call(minutes)4.51Simulation24 G345HInterarrivalTimeAverages=AVERAGE(D5:D104) ILength of Call(minutes)=AVERAGE(E5:E104)

(80 rows have been hidden) （前80个被隐藏）

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Fitting Data to a Distribution

数据拟合

Using Crystal Ball? to fit data to a distribution

1. Select a spreadsheet cell. 1．选择工作表中的单元格。 2. Choose Define Assumption. 2．选择定义的预测

3. Click the Fit button, then select the source of the fitted data. 3．点击拟合按钮，然后选择你和数据的来源。

4. Click the Next button, then select the distributions to try to fit. 4．点击Next按钮，然后选择分布进行拟合。 5. Click OK. 5．点击OK。

Interarrival Time 到达间隔时间

Service Time 服务时间

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