国贸贸易经济学论文(7)

北京工商大学毕业论文（设计） 新工业和经济增长模式的道路。

在过去的三十年，由于国内改革旨在快速建立工业化和都市化，外加打开经济面向国际贸易，中国已经经历了一个显著的经济增长时期。今天，中国是世界上第三大经济国和第三大出口国。中国的经济地位在未来的20年很可能增长，加上相符的工业化和都市化规模的扩大。然而，中国经济也面临着巨大的挑战。首先，目前趋势并不稳定，在环境方面存在这很大的资源压力。中国还需要对应气候变化的威胁，包括适应它带来的影响。中国的工业结构依旧还不理想，创新生产能力还不强。低附加值商品的相对优势也一直比较弱，特别是在全球经济危机之后。出口导向型经济体，像中国在全球不稳定经济设置的情况下面临许多巨大的压力。

中国现存发展模式是无法持续的。目前在能量消耗方面的增长速度将导致中国越来越多依赖高价进口煤炭，石油和天然气。在2006年，中国的GDP占全球总量的5.5％；而能源，钢材和水泥消费分别占到15％，30％和54％。气候变化通过水紧张和极端天气已经威胁到玉米产量的减少，并且如果持续这样的天气变化将严重地阻挡中国的发展。

全球化不仅领向一个国际工业产品的重新分配，还表明能源和资源消费的重新配置与加强，排放。根据世界能源展望2007：中国和印度情况，中国2004年能源在出口的总额为4亿吨油当量，总计国家能源消费的25％。同年，中国进口能源的产品数量达到1亿7千1百万吨油当量，总计能源需求的10％。而中国出口能源的产品的比例更是比其他城市都高（对美国，欧盟和日本，数据则分别占6％，7％和10％）。如此高的比例增剧了中国二氧化碳排放的增加。

根据能源和资源的限制，还有由不可持续发展的贸易流不均衡导致的金融不稳定性，国际经济结构和贸易惯例一直在变动。当全球转向低碳经济对中国带来压力时，他 也为将来的成长机会的到来敲响警钟。转向低碳经济可以带来以上大致的挑战，并且实现长期可持续发展的目标。

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北京工商大学毕业论文（设计）

附录2

Global Shift to a low carbon economy

By CCICED Policy Research Report 2009

In this report, a Low Carbon Economy (LCE) is defined as a new economic,technological and social system of production and consumption to conserveenergy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions compared with the traditionaleconomic system, whilst maintaining momentum towards economic and social development.

This definition is underpinned by three principles:

a) A LCE would eventually decouple economic growth from greenhouse gas and other polluting emissions, through technological and other innovations and changes in infrastructure and behavioural changes. b) At China‘s current stage of development, still undergoing industrialization and urbanization, ―Low Carbon1‖ is a relative rather than an absolute concept. Emissions per unit of economic output are reduced more rapidly under aLCE than would be the case with a continuation of the status quo.

c) A Low Carbon Economy achieves many key development objectives including long term economic growth, creation of jobs and economic opportunities, reduction of resource consumption, and enhancement of technological innovation.

To avoid dangerous levels of climate change, global temperature rises need to be restricted to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial level. To realize this goal, global emissions will need to peak within the next ten years; they will need to be halved or more by 2050. In order to achieve this, energy systems that are close to zero emissions will need to be developed. Eventually these will need to be implemented globally. Different development situations will mean countries have different pathways to a low carbon economy. Consequently this report does not make specific recommendations on absolute emissions targets for China, focusing instead on relative measures of carbon intensity and energy consumption.

The cost of low carbon transition is a critical issue for policymakers today. In practice, the overall costs of CO2 reduction are likely to be lower than expected. In many sectors clean technologies already exist and reduction measures are low cost or even profitable, for example in energy conservation, efficiency and renewable energy production. However, cost estimates vary quite widely. This is partly because

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北京工商大学毕业论文（设计） technology costs are uncertain, and are dependent on the global price of oil, which can fluctuate significantly. McKinsey‘s CO2 abatement cost curve2 suggests that approximately one third of the 36GtCO2 affordable global abatement opportunities in 2030 are achievable at negative cost (i.e. representing a net economic benefit even without considering reduced climate damages). McKinsey also estimate that the total costs of mitigation will be on the order of 0.6-1.4 % of global GDP by 2050. The negative cost options are mostly associated with energy efficiency improvements. The Stern Review indicated that the total global costs of meeting a stabilization target sufficient to avoid the worst effects of climate change could range from -3.9% of world GDP (i.e. a net benefit) to +3.4% of world GDP in 2030.

Central to the vision for a low carbon economic future is increasing appreciation of the potential economic, social and political benefits – rather than the costs – of the transition. A recent study estimates that China alone will need $25 billion per year for investment in low carbon technologies.5 Globally, the value of low carbon energy products are estimated by the Stern Review6 to be worth at least $500 billion per year by 2050, and perhaps much more. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) meeting a 450 ppm CO2e concentration limit would require an increase in investment of 18%, averaging an additional $1 trillion per year up to 2050 compared to the Business-as-usual (BAU) requirements.

At the global level, the transition to a low carbon economy is no longer a choice but a necessity. Fluctuating prices and supply volatility are motivating the more efficient use of resources. The tightening global supply of oil and natural gas – as well as the imperative of climate mitigation – is fuelling the development of new technologies.

With deeper acceptance of the findings of climate-related science, the question today is less about whether low carbon transition is needed but how fast can it be implemented and at what scale. The low carbon economy can not only be a useful way through the current economic crisis but is the most viable means to ensure sustained growth in the medium and long term. Investment opportunities in low carbon goods and services may become increasingly appealing compared to risks associated with investing in traditional sectors. A global assessment undertaken by Greenpeace International and the European Renewable Energy Council pointed to a net increase of nearly 2 million jobs in the power sector as a result of increased use of renewable energy by 2030

Trade in a carbon-constrained world.Trade and investment can facilitate the worldwide transition to a low carbon economy through the creation of new market incentives. Trade and investment also enhances access to countries‘ comparative advantages, leading to cheaper inputs and prices. Despite the benefits brought by global trade, trade-related CO2 emissions are likely to come under increasing scrutiny in the coming months. This is especially problematic for emerging economies dependent on export-led growth.

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北京工商大学毕业论文（设计） Many US legislators have championed proposals to impose border tariffs on exports from developing countries not taking ?comparable actions‘ to limit GHG emissions. These ideas are also favoured by a number of European governments and legislators.

Table 1 Strategic action for a low carbon economy - selected countries Country Action

Australia: Cap and trade ?Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme‘ to be phased in from 1 July 2011 and a commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 25 per cent below 2000 levels by 2020 (pending UNFCCC post-Kyoto agreement).

Brazil: Implementation of a ?National Policy for Energy Efficiency‘ that will result in a gradual energy saving up to 106 TWh/year to be reached by 2030, a reduction of emissions of around 30 million tons of carbon in that year.

Costa Rica Pledged to be carbon neutral by 2021.

France: Emission reductions of the order of 75 – 80 per cent before 2050 if other countries do the same (a conditional target).

UK: 2008 Climate Change requires legally binding 5 year carbon budgets to be set by an independent expert committee. The Act requires emission reductions through action in the UK and abroad of at least 80% by 2050.The carbon budget for 2020 is set at 34% reduction compared to 1990, increasing to 42% following a global deal on climate change. Pledge to build no new coal-fired power stations without CCS to capture at least 25% of carbon emissions and 100% of emissions by 2025.

Mexico Planning a domestic cap-and-trade system by 2012 to cut emissions from certain sectors (cement, oil refining etc.). The government has pledged to halve carbon emissions by 2050 on 2002 levels. Norway: Aim of being carbon neutral by 2030. Has committed 140 million Euros over 5 years CCS projects in selected EU member states.

South Africa:A plan to halt its growth of greenhouse gas emissions at the latest by 2020-

2025 and to adopt various economic and policy measures so that emissions will eventually stabilise and decline.

Sweden: In 2000 Sweden discussed a target of reducing own emissions by 50 % from 1990 level before year 2050. The government has said that Sweden should work internationally for stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases at a level below 550 ppm CO2-equivalents. Swedish per capita emissions should be below 4.5 tonnes CO2-equivalents before 2050. This represents a reduction of just over 40 % compared to today‘s level. The 2008 budget included 7 billion Krona for climate and energy initiatives between 2009-2011.

United States The government has suggested a 14-15 % reduction in carbon emissions from 2005 levels

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北京工商大学毕业论文（设计） by 2020. The Waxman-Markey Bill (recently passed US House of Representatives, now facing the Senate) calls for an absolute cap covering 85% of the US economy, resulting in a 17% reduction by 2020 and over 80% reduction by 2050 compared to 2005 levels. The Bill requires electric utilities to meet 15% of their electricity demand through renewable energy sources and energy efficiency by 2020 and outlines US$90 billion in new investments in clean energy technologies and energy efficiency by 2025.

Japan The incoming Prime Minister has stated that Japan would seek to reduce CO2 emissions by 25% below 1990 levels by 2020. This target would be contingent on a deal involving all major emitters in Copenhagen in December 2009

EU Committed to cutting carbon emissions by 30% of 1990 levels by 2020 (pending UNFCCC post-Kyoto agreement). The 2007 EU climate and energy package has set 3 additional targets to be met by 2020: a 20% reduction in energy consumption compared with projected trends; an increase to 20% in renewable energies' share of total energy consumption; and an increase to 10% in the share of petrol and diesel consumption from sustainably-produced biofuels.

Necessity and urgency of developing a low carbon economy in China

Low carbon economy is consistent with the strategic goal of scientific development

A low carbon development pathway is the best way for China to achieve a resilient and prosperous society, while building on and enhancing China‘s priorities such as the Scientific Outlook on Development, the construction of a resource-saving, environmentally-friendly society, and the development of a circular economy. Efforts to maintain a safe climate is in line with the Chinese priority of developing a harmonious society, and is fully consistent with existing Chinese efforts on energy saving and environmental protection. The low carbon economy provides a pathway to the new industrial and economic growth model that China urgently seeks.

China has experienced a remarkable economic expansion over the past three decades, triggered by domestic reform targeted at rapid industrialization and urbanisation, coupled with opening its economy to international trade. Today, China is the third largest economy and the third largest exporter in the world. Its economic status is likely to grow in the next 20 years, together with corresponding expansion in scale of industrialisation and urbanisation. However, the Chinese economy also faces immense challenges. First, the current trends are not sustainable, with high resource pressures on the environment. China also needs to tackle the threat of climate change, including adapting to its impacts. Its industrial structure remains sub-optimal, with weak innovative capacities. Its comparative advantage in low value addition production has also been weakened especially following the global financial and economic crisis. Export-oriented

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北京工商大学毕业论文（设计） economies like China face great pressures in an increasingly uncertain global economic setting.

China‘s existing model of development is therefore not sustainable. Current growth rates in energy consumption will lead China to be increasingly dependent on imports of coal, as well as increasingly dependent on imports of oil and gas with higher world prices. In 2006, China‘s GDP accounted for 5.5% of the world total; its energy, steel and cement consumption respectively accounted for 15%, 30% and 54%. Climate change already threatens to reduce crop yields through water-stress and extreme weather, and if it goes unmitigated climate change will severely impede China‘s development.

Globalization has not only led to an international redistribution of industrial production; it has also meant a redistribution of energy and resource consumption, and hence, emissions. According to the World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, the amount of energy ?re-exported‘ by China in 2004 was 400 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe), amounting to 25% of the country‘s energy consumption. The amount of energy embodied in the commodities China imported that year was 171 Mtoe, amounting to 10% of energy demand. The proportion of energy embodied in the commodities China exports is much higher than that for other countries (for the US, the EU and Japan, the figures are 6%, 7% and 10% respectively). This high proportion exacerbates the rise of China‘s carbon dioxide emissions. International economic structures and trade rules are changing in response to energy and resource constraints, as well as in response to financial instability caused by unsustainable trade flow imbalances. While a global move to a low carbon economy places pressures on China‘s development, it also rings great opportunities for future growth. A move towards a low carbon economy can address the challenges outlined above, and realise the long term goal of sustainable growth.

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