利率对房地产信贷风险的影响

摘 要

摘 要

随着市场经济的发展，自2000年全国大规模推广住房制度改革以来，我国房地产行业与金融体系的关系越来越密切。目前，我国的房地产市场过热，房地产价格保持高位运行且增长速度较快。利率作为金融货币政策的一个重要工具，能否将房地产价格的增长控制在一个相对平稳的区间内，对于维护房地产市场的稳定至关重要。与此同时，我国房地产业蓬勃发展，房地产贷款也随之快速增加，房地产开发资金约有60％-70％依靠银行贷款，这种现状直接导致银行信贷资产越来越受制于房地产市场的波动，加大了银行信贷风险，必须引起金融业的高度重视。

本文以我国现阶段房地产信贷发展情况为基础，以商业银行个人住房信贷为切入点，通过重点研究利率变动对房价造成的波动，从而产生对房地产信贷一系列的影响，来揭示利率变动对房地产信贷风险产生的部分影响。全文共分为六部分，第一部分主要论述了选题意义和背景，国内外研究现状以及论文论证方法及传导机制；第二部分目前我国商业银行个人住房信贷的目前的发展情况，揭示了我国商业银行个人住房信贷发展存在的不足。第三部分和第四部分以利率对房价的影响为重点，围绕利率影响房价，房价波动影响房地产信贷的传导机制，揭示了利率对房地产信贷风险的影响。第五部分主要针对利率调控房价存在的问题以及我国房地产信贷风险的防范，提出了一系列的建议及对策。第六部分对全文做出总结。

关键词：利率, 房价, 商业银行个人住房信贷, 房地产信贷风险

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XXXX学院本科生毕业设计（论文）

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ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

With the development of market economy, the national large-scale promotion of housing system reform since 2000, our country real estate industry and the financial system is more and more closely. At present, our country real estate market overheating, real estate prices remain high and growing fast. Interest rate as an important financial monetary policy tool, can control the growth of the real estate prices in a relatively stable interval, is very important to maintain the stability of the real estate market. At the same time, China's real estate industry vigorous development, real estate loans also increases rapidly, the real estate development funds about 60% - 60% rely on bank loans, this situation led directly to the bank credit assets is more and more subject to the fluctuations of the real estate market, increasing the risk of bank credit, the must has drawn great attention of the financial sector.

In this paper, based on the real estate development credit at the present stage in China, to the commercial bank personal housing credit as the breakthrough point, by focusing on the interest rate changes on prices caused by fluctuations, thus the influence of a series of real estate credit, to reveal the interest rate changes some of the impact on the real estate credit risk. The full text is divided into six parts, the first part mainly discusses the significance and background of topics, research status at home and abroad and the thesis argument method and transmission mechanism; In the second part is the current development of China's commercial Banks personal housing credit situation, reveals the deficiency existing in our country commercial bank individual housing credit development. The third and the fourth part, focusing on the interest rates impact on housing prices around the interest rates affect house prices, housing price fluctuations affect the credit transmission mechanism, reveal the influence of interest rate on the real estate credit risk. The fifth part mainly aiming at the existing problem of interest rate control housing prices and the credit risk of real estate in our country, a series of Suggestions and countermeasures are put forward. The sixth part give a summary to full text.

Key Words:Interest rates, prices, commercial bank individual housing credit, real estate credit risk

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XXXX学院本科生毕业设计（论文）

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目 录

目 录

1 绪 论 ........................................................ 1

1.1 选题背景及意义 .......................................... 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 .......................................... 2

1.2.1 国外研究现状 ...................................... 2 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ...................................... 3

2 我国商业银行个人住房信贷风险管理概述 .......................... 5

2.1 我国商业银行个人住房信贷风险的简介 ...................... 5

2.1.1 我国个人住房信贷业务的内涵与特点 .................. 5 2.1.2 我国商业银行个人住房信贷风险内涵及类型 ............ 5 2.2 我国商业银行个人住房信贷发展历程 ........................ 6 2.3 我国商业银行个人住房信贷风险管理现状 .................... 7 3 利率调整对房地产价格的影响分析 ................................ 9

3.1 利率对房地产价格影响的供给需求理论分析 .................. 9

3.1.1 利率波动对房地产供给的影响 ........................ 9 3.1.2 利率波动对房地产需求的影响 ........................ 9 3.2 利率对房地产价格影响的金融市场理论分析 ................. 10

3.2.1利率变动通过外汇市场影响房价 ..................... 11 3.2.2利率变动通过证券市场影响房价 ..................... 11 3.3 房地产供求双方对利率变化的反应程度分析 ................. 11 4利率变动影响下房价波动对房地产信贷风险的影响分析 ............. 13

4.1房价波动与我国商业银行个人住房信贷风险的作用机制分析 ... 13

4.1.1 基于借款人的理性选择 ............................. 13 4.1.2 基于商业银行行为视角的分析 ....................... 13 4.1.3 基于房地产开发商行为视角的分析 ................... 14

5 利率调控房价存在的问题和防范房地产信贷风险的建议 ............. 17

5.1 在运用利率政策调控房地产市场时产生的问题 ............... 17

5.1.1 利率政策对房价的抑制作用具时滞性 ................. 17 5.1.2 高回报率是房价上涨的主要成因 ..................... 17 5.1.3 市场需求是难以通过调整利率控制的 ................. 17 5.1.4开发商通过抬高房价来转嫁利息成本 ................. 18 5.1.5地方政府调控房价的动力不足 ....................... 18 5.2利率对房价影响存在的问题的解决方法及建议 ............... 18

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